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R로 배우는 시계열 분석

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업데이트됨 2026. 1.

시계열 데이터에서 의미 있는 통찰력을 추출하는 데 필요한 핵심 기법을 익히십시오.

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RProbability & Statistics

4시간

16 동영상

58 연습 문제

4,600 XP

61,186

성취 증명서

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주가 변동처럼 우리의 일상에서 관측되는 많은 현상은 일정한 간격으로 시간이 지나며 측정됩니다. 시계열 분석 방법은 이러한 특별한 형태의 데이터를 분석하는 데 매우 유용합니다. 이 강의에서는 핵심 시계열 분석 개념과 기법을 소개합니다.

선수 조건

1

Exploratory time series data analysis

This chapter will give you insights on how to organize and visualize time series data in R. You will learn several simplifying assumptions that are widely used in time series analysis, and common characteristics of financial time series.

Welcome to the course!

Exploring raw time series

Basic time series plots

What does the time index tell us?

Sampling frequency

Identifying the sampling frequency

When is the sampling frequency exact?

Missing values

Basic time series objects

Creating a time series object with ts()

Testing whether an object is a time series

Plotting a time series object

2

Predicting the future

In this chapter, you will conduct some trend spotting, and learn the white noise (WN) model, the random walk (RW) model, and the definition of stationary processes.

Trend spotting!

Random or not random?

Name that trend

Removing trends in variability via the logarithmic transformation

Removing trends in level by differencing

Removing seasonal trends with seasonal differencing

The white noise (WN) model

Simulate the white noise model

Estimate the white noise model

The random walk (RW) model

Simulate the random walk model

Simulate the random walk model with a drift

Estimate the random walk model

Stationary processes

Stationary or not?

Are the white noise model or the random walk model stationary?

3

Correlation analysis and the autocorrelation function

In this chapter, you will review the correlation coefficient, use it to compare two time series, and also apply it to compare a time series with its past, as an autocorrelation. You will discover the autocorrelation function (ACF) and practice estimating and visualizing autocorrelations for time series data.

Scatterplots

Asset prices vs. asset returns

Characteristics of financial time series

Plotting pairs of data

Covariance and correlation

Calculating sample covariances and correlations

Guess the correlation coefficient

Autocorrelation

Calculating autocorrelations

The autocorrelation function

Visualizing the autocorrelation function

4

Autoregression

In this chapter, you will learn the autoregressive (AR) model and several of its basic properties. You will also practice simulating and estimating the AR model in R, and compare the AR model with the random walk (RW) model.

The autoregressive model

Simulate the autoregressive model

Estimate the autocorrelation function (ACF) for an autoregression

Persistence and anti-persistence

Compare the random walk (RW) and autoregressive (AR) models

AR model estimation and forecasting

Estimate the autoregressive (AR) model

Simple forecasts from an estimated AR model

5

A simple moving average

In this chapter, you will learn the simple moving average (MA) model and several of its basic properties. You will also practice simulating and estimating the MA model in R, and compare the MA model with the autoregressive (AR) model.

The simple moving average model

Simulate the simple moving average model

Estimate the autocorrelation function (ACF) for a moving average

MA model estimation and forecasting

Estimate the simple moving average model

Simple forecasts from an estimated MA model

Compare AR and MA models

AR vs MA models

Name that model by time series plot

Name that model by ACF plot

Congratulations!

R로 배우는 시계열 분석

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