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Rで解く確率パズル

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更新日 2024/08

Rで多様な確率パズルを解きながら、確率問題に答えるための戦略を学びます。

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RProbability & Statistics

4時間

13 ビデオ

45 演習

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コース説明

確率のスキルをさらに磨きたいと思いませんか？このコースでは、確率パズルを題材にした問題ベースの学習で実践的に身につけていきます。解法をたどりながら、確率問題を解くためのコーディング手法や汎用的な戦略を学べます。テーマ別に構成され、バースデー問題やモンティ・ホールのような古典的な問題から始まり、最後はTexas Hold'emやWorld Series of Pokerに関連するポーカーのパズルまで取り上げます。

前提条件

Intermediate R Foundations of Probability in R

1

Introduction and Classic Puzzles

This chapter will introduce some basic principles that will be used throughout the course, such as writing loops and functions. Then, we dive into a couple of classic problems: the Birthday Problem, and Monty Hall.

Introduction to the Course

Writing a simple function

Writing a simple for loop

Setting a seed

The Birthday Problem

Simulation of a single n

Using the pbirthday function

Make a plot

Win probability with "stick"

Writing a function to "switch"

Win probability with "switch"

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2

Games with Dice

In this chapter, we explore games in which dice are rolled, including Yahtzee, Settlers of Catan, and Craps. You will learn tools such as using built-in R functions to calculate combinatorics, and using functions such as replicate and the %in% operator.

Probability of a Yahtzee

Probability of a large straight

Probability of a full house

Settlers of Catan

Simulate one game

Simulate 10000 games

Function to keep rolling when point is established

Function to run one round

Probability of winning the pass line bet

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3

Inspired from the Web

The puzzles in this chapter were inspired by ideas encountered on the internet. In order to solve them, you will learn to combine tools such as nested for loops, and the functions round, identical, and sapply.

Factoring a Quadratic

Which condition will return TRUE?

Write a function to check factorability

Simulate the factorable probability

Four Digit iPhone Passcodes

Four known values

Three known values

Sign Error Cancellations

Simulate sign errors: constant probabilities

Simulate sign errors: changing probabilities

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4

Poker

This chapter explores questions in poker, including the most often televised version of Texas Hold'em. We will learn to code for win probabilities with any given number of outs, and also explore a more theoretical model of poker known as the von Neumann model. We will learn to use functions such as Reduce, runif, and ifelse.

Texas Hold'em

Calculate expected value with one card to come

Two cards to come

Consecutive Cashes

Two consecutive years

Function to evaluate set of five years

Simulate probability for a given set of five years

von Neumann Model of Poker

One round of von Neumann Poker

Function to simulate one round with betting

Simulate many iterations of von Neumann model

Congratulations!

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Rで解く確率パズル

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