Election Forecasting and Polling (with Andrew Gelman)
Andrew Gelman speaks with Hugo about statistics, data science, polling, and election forecasting.
About Andrew Gelman
Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He has received the Outstanding Statistical Application award from the American Statistical Association, the award for best article published in the American Political Science Review, and the Council of Presidents of Statistical Societies award for outstanding contributions by a person under the age of 40. His books include Bayesian Data Analysis (with John Carlin, Hal Stern, David Dunson, Aki Vehtari, and Don Rubin), Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks (with Deb Nolan), Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models (with Jennifer Hill), Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do (with David Park, Boris Shor, and Jeronimo Cortina), and A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences (co-edited with Jeronimo Cortina).
Andrew has done research on a wide range of topics, including: why it is rational to vote; why campaign polls are so variable when elections are so predictable; why redistricting is good for democracy; reversals of death sentences; police stops in New York City, the statistical challenges of estimating small effects; the probability that your vote will be decisive; seats and votes in Congress; social network structure; arsenic in Bangladesh; radon in your basement; toxicology; medical imaging; and methods in surveys, experimental design, statistical inference, computation, and graphics.
Links from the show
FROM THE INTERVIEW
- Andrew's Blog
- Andrew on Twitter
- We Need to Move Beyond Election-Focused Polling (Gelman and Rothschild, Slate)
- We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results (Cohn, The New York Times).
- 19 things we learned from the 2016 election (Gelman and Azari, Science, 2017)
- The best books on How Americans Vote (Gelman, Five Books)
- The best books on Statistics (Gelman, Five Books)
- Andrew's Research
FROM THE SEGMENT
Blog Post of the Week (with Emily Robinson~13:30)
Data Science Best Practices (with Ben Skrainka~40:40)
- Oberkampf & Roy’s Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing provides a thorough yet very readable treatment
- A comprehensive framework for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing (Roy and Oberkampf, Science Direct)
Original music and sounds by The Sticks.