- Thread starter Grape
- Start date

EDIT: @T72on1 you could go with a rare FCR circlet to substitute Griffon's maybe? If you have better gloves (Javelin skills/IAS) I'd prefer that over using Magefist, mostly because of the IAS actually.

@ffs Yes, here are some variance plots for 20k kills and 200k kills

One could count Rings instead, they drop about 4 times as likely as Jewels. Or Cham runes

What is nice to see is that the standard deviation goes as sqrt(N), 10 times larger sample gives a relative standard deviation suppression of a factor ~ 3 which is expected. By counting rings instead, which drop rate is 4 times higher, at 200k kills the standard deviation should be equal about 3% of the average value.

Wondering what gives highest accuracy after 20h runs, counting Rings, or watching 5 videos in slow motion and count by hand and finally extrapolate that into +1000 runs?

The amount of effective monsters killed per min by counting also varies. Someone got about 300 in one run for instance

One could count Rings instead, they drop about 4 times as likely as Jewels. Or Cham runes

What is nice to see is that the standard deviation goes as sqrt(N), 10 times larger sample gives a relative standard deviation suppression of a factor ~ 3 which is expected. By counting rings instead, which drop rate is 4 times higher, at 200k kills the standard deviation should be equal about 3% of the average value.

Wondering what gives highest accuracy after 20h runs, counting Rings, or watching 5 videos in slow motion and count by hand and finally extrapolate that into +1000 runs?

The amount of effective monsters killed per min by counting also varies. Someone got about 300 in one run for instance

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I should say that those 20k and 200k kills was simulated 1000 times each, to get the standard deviation (which is square root of the variance). There is a way to analytically calculate the variance of course, but I was too lazy to do it.

What my main point was, is that there is a variance when you count the number of kills by watching a video aswell, since the the number of monsters (and types) are random too, so how many runs does one need to do in order to extrapolate it to about 1500 runs with, lets say, 3% accuracy and what will the invested time by watching those videos (in slow motion) be?

I'd say it is easier to check number of drops of something that is i) fairly common and ii) fairly noteable/countable doing runs. Counting number of Mana potions or scrolls of town portals would slow down your run too much I think And then do as many runs needed in order to match a desired theoretical accuracy.

(The thing that has the highest variance, is the high rune drops )

I am former particle physics researcher and now I am a math teacher, so I love numbers and statistics <3

What my main point was, is that there is a variance when you count the number of kills by watching a video aswell, since the the number of monsters (and types) are random too, so how many runs does one need to do in order to extrapolate it to about 1500 runs with, lets say, 3% accuracy and what will the invested time by watching those videos (in slow motion) be?

I'd say it is easier to check number of drops of something that is i) fairly common and ii) fairly noteable/countable doing runs. Counting number of Mana potions or scrolls of town portals would slow down your run too much I think And then do as many runs needed in order to match a desired theoretical accuracy.

(The thing that has the highest variance, is the high rune drops )

I am former particle physics researcher and now I am a math teacher, so I love numbers and statistics <3

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The 200K kills are in the neighborhood of a 20 hour set- it's good to see some stats regarding that. I rather have this info over a few counted runs, but this info can't be obtained until it's too late. Good for future batches I suppose. Jewels are the most common of all the items I'm collecting, so unfortunately I won't be contributing anything better.

yes that is true! So jewel or SC or GC would be 3:758 = 1:253I'm 1 hour short of finishing, no more additional stats that I want to collect at this point. Also, each charm type has the same drop chance as jewels, right? I just realized small and grand charms can be used here as well.

That would lower the standard deviation/mean with a factor of sqrt(3)

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I must say I'm very much looking forward to the results, especially of those running AS. There's so much potential !!!

Kind of quiet in here, hope people are still running?

8 hours now, still 1 qualifier.

Could’ve did quite a bit of running last night but I wasn’t feeling it and spent 5-6 hours failing at Any% HC speedruns.

E: to elaborate I’m getting tons of sets/uniques with 50 MF and haven’t seen anything higher than Lem since I started Nihlathak besides the 1 qualifier. Complaining for the RNG etc.

Could’ve did quite a bit of running last night but I wasn’t feeling it and spent 5-6 hours failing at Any% HC speedruns.

E: to elaborate I’m getting tons of sets/uniques with 50 MF and haven’t seen anything higher than Lem since I started Nihlathak besides the 1 qualifier. Complaining for the RNG etc.

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Good luck to those still running !!!

As usual, here is a little snippit of non-qualifier goodness to look at until the results thread is up. Good luck to those still running! Get those roooooooonz

Flawless Amethysts: 81

Flawless Rubies: 64

Jewels: 97 (nothing noteworthy)

Sol: 30

Ral: 32

Skillers: 6

1 x Captain's (+1-13 lit dmg)

2 x Graverobber's (both plain)

1 x Harpoonist's (plain)

1 x Spiritual (plain)

1 x Sparking GC of Sustenance (Next RFL = Lit sorc in the AS?)

Code:

```
Sparking Grand Charm of Sustenance
Grand Charm
Required Level: 42
Fingerprint: 0xd6e45732
Item Level: **
Version: Expansion 1.10+
+1 to Lightning Skills (Sorceress Only)
+29 to Life
```

Favourite kept charms:

Steel GC of Balance

Code:

```
Steel Grand Charm of Balance
Grand Charm
Required Level: 35
Fingerprint: 0x3ee2b32f
Item Level: 85
Version: Expansion 1.10+
+12% Faster Hit Recovery
+115 to Attack Rating
```

Code:

```
Steel Grand Charm of Dexterity
Grand Charm
Required Level: 41
Fingerprint: 0x485fc00e
Item Level: **
Version: Expansion 1.10+
Unidentified
+130 to Attack Rating
+4 to Dexterity
```

Code:

```
Fine Small Charm of Vita
Small Charm
Required Level: 39
Fingerprint: 0x63e00831
Item Level: 85
Version: Expansion 1.10+
+3 to Maximum Damage
+14 to Attack Rating
+19 to Life
```

Code:

```
Fine Small Charm of Balance
Small Charm
Required Level: 29
Fingerprint: 0x53de1691
Item Level: 85
Version: Expansion 1.10+
+5% Faster Hit Recovery
+2 to Maximum Damage
+18 to Attack Rating
```

Code:

```
Ruby Small Charm of Inertia
Small Charm
Required Level: 32
Fingerprint: 0x96b030e5
Item Level: **
Version: Expansion 1.10+
+3% Faster Run/Walk
Fire Resist +11%
```